Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge Progress

Download the SAF Grand Challenge: Tracking Metrics and Mid-2024 Dashboard fact sheet.

The Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge is the result of the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and other federal government agencies working together to develop a comprehensive strategy for scaling up new technologies to produce sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) on a commercial scale.

The SAF Grand Challenge Roadmap outlines a whole-of-government approach with coordinated policies and specific activities that should be undertaken to achieve the SAF Grand Challenge goals.

To track progress on achieving these goals, the following four metrics have been developed:

Estimated total U.S. SAF production.
Estimated life cycle CO₂ reductions achieved with U.S. SAF production.
Planned production potential of SAF in the United States.
Applicable research, development, and deployment projects.

SAF Grand Challenge Metrics Dashboard

Since the SAF Grand Challenge was announced, annual SAF domestic production and imports have grown from 5 million gallons in 2021 to 52 million gallons through the first six months of 2024. Fifty-two million gallons corresponds to more than 300,000 metric tons of CO₂ emissions reductions.

Based on a database of active projects, between 2.6 and 4.9 billion gallons per year of SAF may be produced by 2030, creating a clear pathway to achieve the SAF Grand Challenge near-term goal. More information about U.S. SAF production, annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions from SAF, and SAF production potential is below.

SAF Production

**Source:** EPA. “Public Data for the Renewable Fuel Standard.” *epa.gov/fuels-registration-reporting-and-compliance-help/public-data-renewable-fuel-standard*.

Based on U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Renewable Identification Number (RIN) values, SAF annual domestic production and imports grew from 5 million gallons in 2021 to 26 million gallons in 2023; 52 million gallons have been produced and imported through June 2024.^a
Through June 2024, SAF is predominantly based on conversion of fat, oil, and grease feedstocks through the hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) process.
Based on public reporting, major producers in this time frame include World Energy, Montana Renewables, Sinclair, GEVO, and Neste Oil.

^a_{RIN data are currently the best available data source. In the future, the plan is to solicit SAF production data directly from U.S. producers.}

Annual GHG Reduction

**Source:** Calculations by the U.S. Department of Energy based on 50%–70% GHG reduction.

Based on assumptions for the fat, oil, and grease feedstocks used, life cycle GHG reductions range between 50% and 70% compared to conventional jet fuel.^b
For 2023, this corresponds to reductions in GHG emissions between 154,000 and 216,000 metric tons of CO₂ equivalent (CO₂e).
More than 300,000 metric tons of CO₂ equivalent GHG emission reductions have been realized through June 2024.

^b_{These calculations are based on the RIN production data in the previous figure. In the future, the plan is to solicit GHG reduction data directly from U.S. SAF producers.}

SAF Production Potential

*Source data for the future potential volumes will be available in a forthcoming ASCENT 01 publication. Brandt, K; Wolcott, M. (2024).*
**RD data source:** U.S. Energy Information Administration.
**SAF data source:** EPA. “Public Data for the Renewable Fuel Standard.”

Based on a database of active projects,¹ between 2.6 and 4.9 billion gallons per year of SAF may be produced by 2030, creating a clear pathway to achieve the SAF Grand Challenge near-term goal.²
This volume is predominantly renewable diesel (RD) capacity that could be shifted to SAF under favorable policy and market conditions.
Historically, very little RD production has shifted to SAF production. The Commercial Aviation Alternative Fuels Initiative (CAAFI), a joint venture between DOT’s Federal Aviation Administration and the commercial aviation industry, is tracking more than 2 billion gallons per year of SAF production intent by the end of 2028 and is working with 200 potential SAF producers on their commercialization planning efforts.

Key Assumptions

A project success ratio of 0.5 is applied to active RD and SAF projects.³

The low scenarios include the potential SAF distillate cut from active projects.

The high scenarios add a higher SAF distillate cut achievable with additional equipment upgrades and operating expense.⁴

¹_{Active projects are RD and SAF projects that are either currently producing, in construction, or announced and proceeding with development. To be included, projects must have a publicly announced start date, conversion technology, and capacity.}

²_{No new projects have been announced with start dates later than 2028.}

³_{The project success ratio, calculated from historic data, is used to estimate the number of active projects expected to successfully produce RD and/or SAF. An average project success ratio of 0.5 has been derived based on a historical database of RD and SAF projects and was applied to all active RD and SAF projects not currently in production. A project success ratio of 1.0 was applied to actively producing projects, as well as all announced coprocessing projects, as they are assumed to have a high implementation rate.}

⁴_{SAF low and high potential scenarios assume 40% and 80%, respectively, of total HEFA distillate volume redirected to SAF.}

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